Azerbaijan and Armenia started the Second Karabakh War (First one: 1988-1994) on the 27th of September 2020. As of today, the 6th of October 2020, the war is ongoing. Azerbaijan is fighting for its internationally recognized territories (by the United Nations, the highest international body with 200 member countries) which are occupied by Armenia. Armenia is fighting to keep Nagorno-Karabakh by claiming that this territory belongs to them because of the ancient Kingdom of Armenia.
In the latest news, the Azerbaijan side claims that they have liberated some parts of the occupied lands, while Armenians call it a "tactical withdrawal" as a trap. All in all, one thing is sure that both sides have lost a considerable number of their soldiers (and civilians) and they keep losing more. Azerbaijan wants to end the occupation of 30 years after realizing negotiations didn't work and will never work at all. Armenia still declares that they want peace, but the understanding of peace is very different for the parties. For Azerbaijan, peace means Armenia withdraws from the occupied territories, while for Armenia, peace means that the war stops, the sides sit at the table, and try to solve the problem, which is high probably equal to status quo = nothing really changes, as the last 30 years.
Peace for Azerbaijan: Withdrawal of Armenian troops
Peace for Armenia: Negotiations / which is eventually --> Status quo
Azerbaijan started the war with real threats, high tech weapons in the Azerbaijani Military made a real difference. Turkish Bayraktar and Israeli Harops became a gamechanger in the war for the first week in favor of Azerbaijan. Many of the tanks and other heavy weapons are already destroyed by these drones. However, Armenian troops are located in their places for the last 30 years, so Azerbaijan is fighting against 30 years' experience and preparation. In addition, the natural position of Armenian troops is very suitable for the war since they have the mountains and they can observe the field and shoot from above.
Armenia also has the advantage of hitting major Azerbaijani cities from its own lands. Not an honorable advantage, but still an advantage. Armenia and Russia have a mutual military defensive agreement and if Azerbaijan attacks the internationally recognized territories of Armenia, Armenia can officially call Russia for military aid. By knowing this, Azerbaijan is not giving this chance to Armenia. However, nobody knows what will be the strategy of Azerbaijan on this matter if Armenia keeps bombing major Azerbaijani cities. One of the biggest threats is Ganja. Ganja is the second biggest city of Azerbaijan, with 500.000 civilian population. In early October, Armenia launched 4 missile rockets to Ganja and 1 person died. They repeated it 2 days later. Armenia also targeted Mingachevir city, the 4th biggest city of Azerbaijan, and the rockets fell beside the energy blocks without exploding.
Armenia declared a full mobilization while Azerbaijan declared a partial mobilization for the war. It is possible that Azerbaijan calls the whole young men for military service soon. Almost everyone in Azerbaijan supports the war because people think that "this is the war to end all wars". In some sense, this is true. In the last 30 years, there have been a lot of clashes between the neighbors. The clashes were happening for 4-5 days, then it was always followed by a ceasefire. If we use some empathy, this is very hard for the parents who lost their children in the clashes. If nothing is really happening, why did their children die for? For the motherlands, or for nothing?
10 days just passed, but it feels like 60 days. People who are not fighting on the field are constantly checking their cellphones to learn what is going on. In the last days, I have a serious headache because of looking at the screen the whole day. The best scenario for any war is that one side wins quickly so that everyone can get rid of disturbing uncertainty and face the real consequences. This war looks like it will go for a long period.
War is a terrible thing. War is a disgrace for humanity. Not for humanity actually, it is a grace for civilized societies, otherwise, by calling it a disgrace, we would target the 99% of human history, which is full of blood and terror. Every person with a sound mind knows this: Do not kill. Not as a part of the Ten Commandments, but as a part of basic ethics and morality.
But conflicts like "Nagorno-Karabakh" is not that simple. If one side is a real aggressor, you can't really watch and accept it. Does war always mean attacking or is it a defense mechanism?
Personally, I don't want to die (who wants?). But I believe some kind of secular determinism. A determinism that is not mystical. If things happen, it means things happen. Not necessarily for a reason, but because they are happing. Not written before, just happening. If I am taken to the war, then I am taken to the war. If I die, I just die.
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